The Great Indian Political Tamasha

With India getting ready for the next general elections (for the Lok Sabha), I thought it might be useful to focus on politics - 'The Great Indian Politics'. In most democracies, there's a choice between a couple of major political parties. But as with almost everything in India, its never that easy.

With the number of political parties increasing manifold, as the mosquitos do in the monsoon, India has now become used to the system of coalition politics wherein no single party gets a majority (any single party can not get it 'coz of the large number of parties). The government is then formed by creating a coalition of the same parties that fought against each other in the elections. Ironical !

In this era of coalition politics, we not only have to keep our eye on the national parties, but also on the regional parties which have a few MPs but play the key role of 'king-maker' in the formation of the government. And those few MPs in turn get ministerial berths (officially) and unofficially many more things (to be understood, not to be mentioned).

The two main coalitions in India are the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) led by Congress and the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) led by the BJP. The UPA are in power since 2004 and the NDA was the erstwhile government that ruled for six years (two terms). In 2004, while calling the general elections, the NDA government proclaimed "Bhaarat Uday" (or "India Shining"). Although the campaign was a good one, majority of the population did not agree with the NDA's assessment and delivered another fractured mandate in the elections. The Congress party managed a majority and formed the government and hence UPA was born. After nearly 5 years and elections on the verge, people feel cheated by the weak central government and are much eager to bring about a change. But the million-dollar question is what options do they have? This question made me prepare a list of options which goes like this :

SONIA GANDHI / DR MANMOHAN SINGH (indirectly SONIA GANDHI) / RAHUL GANDHI :

Representing the oldest party of India, the party that 'helped' India get independence, the current PM Dr Manmohan Singh, who just had a bypass surgery, still hopes to lead the next elections (and the government). But this seems very unlikely, at least to me. The Congress has two more options - 'tyaag ki devi' Madam Sonia Gandhi and her son '30+ but still young' Rahul Gandhi. But given the Congress party's love and 'faith' for the Gandhi family (or rather the Gandhi surname), I wouldn't be surprised if either of the name comes as the Prime Ministerial candidate after the elections.

LAL KRISHNA ADVANI :

Advani, the NDA's candidate for the PM, has been in the political arena for almost five decades. He was the Number Two in the erstwhile NDA government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. With Vajpayee bowing out, he remains the sole contender for the post. People in India had great regard and affection for Atal Bihari Vajpayee personally. The voters also felt safe with people like Jaswant Singh and Yashwant Sinha but not necessarily Lal Krishna Advani. His chances are reduced because of his age and his extremist image. The age factor plays a bigger role. People now want someone young and dynamic to lead the country.

The BJP has a 'young and dynamic' option too. And that is the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi. He has led Gujarat on the path of development that no other state could ever achieve. He has already been declared PM-material by the top notches of corporate India, namely Ratan Tata, Anil Ambani, Sunil Bharti Mittal and the likes. With Modi's increasing acceptability, the pressure on Advani is also increasing. But he's lucky to have been declared as the NDA's Prime
Ministerial candidate.

THE DARK HORSE (MAYAWATI / MULAYAM SINGH or AMAR SINGH / PRAKASH KARAT / SHARAD PAWAR / LALU PRASAD YADAV / ???) :

I think anyone of these could play the role of 'king maker' in the next elections. Mayawati, the current CM of Uttar Pradesh (UP sends the largest number of MPs to the LS, and Mayawati's BSP has a clear majority in the state assembly), has huge chances of clinching most of the seats in UP.

Samajwadi Party had 'helped' save the UPA government in the trust vote over the Indo - US Nuclear Deal. Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh, after years of hurling abuse at the Congress, decided to jump into bed with them and extend unconditional support to the Congress and prove their importance.

It was Prakash Karat's monumental miscalculation that provided SP this chance. The Left parties withdrew the support at a crucial time. The Communists have not been able to extend their territory beyond West Bengal and Kerala. But they enjoy huge loyalty in theses two states. But the general tendency is that people certainly do not want the Left Front to be a part of any Central Government in India.

The Maratha vote, led by Sharad Pawar, whose NCP is a current coalition partner could also emerge as a victor. A former Congress leader, he split and formed his own party focussing on his home state of Maharashtra. With charismatic leaders like Prafull Patel, he's definitely in the race for the post. As the President of the BCCI, he’s used to taking on heavy weights in battle.

Lalu Prasad Yadav, the Railways minister in the UPA government, can never be ruled out. He's always a front-runner for the Prime Ministerial berth.

There could also be another 'dark horse' which can emerge after the elections.

Elections in any country are interesting to watch. In India, you’re assured a fantastic contest in which a billion people make their way to the polling booths to cast their votes.

India’s faith in democracy, itself, is worthy of celebration.